He also did extensive research into the relationship between El Niño, La Niña and California rainfall and throughout his career he was a frequent media spokesperson for the agency. During his tenure at the NWS he also served as Meteorologist-in-Charge at the Center Weather Service Unit at the FAA’s Air Traffic Control Center in Fremont. He worked as an operational forecaster throughout his career, including 13 years as Lead Forecaster. Jan joined the National Weather Service in 1974 at the Weather Service Forecast Office in Redwood City. He received a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from UC Davis in 1974 and his Master’s from San Jose State in 1992. Null is a Bay Area native, having grown up in Oakland and lived in the East Bay until 2006 when he moved to Saratoga. Twenty years ago he founded a consulting firm, Golden Gate Weather Services, after a 24 year career with the National Weather Service. Jan Null has been a meteorologist in the San Francisco Bay Area for over four decades and is frequently seen on television and heard on the radio when weather is in the news. However, the basic rules of thumb, mostly used operationally look at rainfall intensity and amount. The USGS produces very comprehensive analyses of these post-fire risks at. There are lots of variables, like vegetation type, slope, and rain intensity that ultimately determine the likelihood and impact of debris flows in each individual burn scar. All of these factors combine for increased runoff of debris downslope. Burned vegetation also changes the water balance of the denuded hillsides from wildfires by increasing the soil's water repellency.
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In the aftermath of a wildfire, there is a huge load of material deposited on the ground. Twitter: the strong likelihood of significant high-intensity rainfall over parts of North and Central California on Sunday and Monday comes the increased risk of debris flows (and flash flooding) in recently burned areas. The charts that follow are for the state as a whole, California’s 10 Hydrologic Regions, eight major cities, and the three Sierra Precipitation Indices.
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In general, across the state, at least a full season’s normal rainfall would be needed, in the next six months, to balance the rainfall deficit that has accumulated. While, acknowledging that drought is much more than just precipitation (See “ Defining Drought.It’s Not Just Rainfall), the following data will give some context to the extreme rainfall deficits over the past two-and-a-half rainfall seasons. But over two-thirds of the state is still in at least Severe Drought or greater and the remaining areas of the state are still Abnormally Dry. The area in the Exceptional Drought has fallen from 28% of the state to less than 1%, and the area in Extreme Drought is now at 16% compared to 52%. Twitter: latest Drought Monitor dropped this morning, and it shows a significant improvement over the past month.
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This is reflected in the Seasonal Hurricane Forecast issued by Colorado State University earlier this morning. One of the impacts of the ONI remaining in negative territory will be the potential for a more active than average hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin. ( )Īnd significant upwelling of cool water in the ONI 3.4 region, points toward little change in the short term. Since at least the first of the year, forecast models have shown warming into "neutral" territory, but to date, reality has not cooperated. Twitter: current La NIña in the eastern tropical Pacific remains stubbornly in place, with ONI essentially flat-lined on the border between "weak" and "moderate" categories. Tabular US Daily Normals are available at.
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The largest moderating factor is the adjacent cool water of the eastern Pacific along with the weakening and southward shifting of the Pacific High.įull-size versions of the California and United States maps (below) can be downloaded from and. For example, while on average, Sacramento has its warmest day of the year on July 20th, San Jose waits until August 29th and it's not until September 24th that San Francisco reaches its maximum. And given the prolonged heat over much of the country this summer, just the idea that there is cooler weather ahead may be a reason to rejoice.īut a few locations, especially along the immediate West Coast, have a delayed peak. For many locales across the United States, the last week of July is the hottest time of the year (i.e., the highest normal maximum temperature).